tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.comments2023-07-21T08:19:38.145-07:00Three Takes on the MarketUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-5688494794433755802013-02-25T04:21:22.545-08:002013-02-25T04:21:22.545-08:00Absolutely right.. Albie.. owing to greed people n...Absolutely right.. Albie.. owing to greed people not only make mistakes but greed also makes them to commit Frauds in business and company and the <a href="http://www.adjutantfraud.co.uk/service/general-investigators/" rel="nofollow">Investigation of fraud</a> becomes truly difficult. Only an expert Investigation agency can help you get rid of this and to avoid such situation to arise in future.Emma Clemantinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16661659050358402317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-71232737756939819002013-01-24T16:09:40.830-08:002013-01-24T16:09:40.830-08:00Bought more LULU today at 66.60 and sold at 67.44 ...Bought more LULU today at 66.60 and sold at 67.44 for about a 1.25 % profit. Despite my being glad to be out of LULU because of the valuation in relation to the market being at or near a top, I couldn't resist buying more as it dipped back down. I was hoping it would pop at the end of the day which it did!<br /><br />My track record in the last few months is now:<br /><br />40 successful trades and 1 loss<br /><br />In response to Albie's comment: <br /><br />In terms of being a value investor, I don't consider myself one. I generally don't buy companies that would susceptible to value traps. I buy companies that are rapid growers, which happen to trade at reasonable valuations and have just been knocked down because of bad news of some kind. True Value Investors diversify widely and buy stocks trading for under book value (you could buy the whole company for less than it's liquidation value). These are generally broken companies that may have one last puff left in them. I only invest in companies that are growers that are going to come back quickly from a knock down. That's the way to avoid value traps. Of course, you have to evaluate the company and make sure the bad news doesn't permanently affect the fundamentals of the company. As Buffett say's: "It's better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price". Take care. Stay posted for my next trade! <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-37284254776988443772012-09-13T20:59:59.210-07:002012-09-13T20:59:59.210-07:00considering purchasing DECK in the morning dependi...considering purchasing DECK in the morning depending how market conditions look before the bellBryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-12452085763450816312012-09-13T00:36:09.824-07:002012-09-13T00:36:09.824-07:00The design of this blog is looking very nice, than...The design of this blog is looking very nice, thanks for sharing such a good information regarding trading and various other commodities information. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.profit.biz/" rel="nofollow">MCX, NCDEX, Nifty, Tips, Charts</a>profit.bizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05951856083434322430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-7531712035927556032012-06-21T23:57:12.498-07:002012-06-21T23:57:12.498-07:00I really like your theme plate and the content as ...I really like your theme plate and the content as well. Please keep on posting! <b><a href="http://www.notapennydown.com/blog/" rel="nofollow">Vancouver mortgage refinancing</a></b>notapennydowncahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03086943662015001404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-74691492572484016022012-02-09T18:27:15.612-08:002012-02-09T18:27:15.612-08:00Here’s how I see it. Since their financials are ob...Here’s how I see it. Since their financials are obviously unreliable, at least for the last couple of years, I can’t really form a thesis based on them. Therefore, I am switching to the other side of my brain, and I ask myself “what would I do if I were Wall Street?” Since the majority of the money in stocks is institutional (mutual funds, ETF’s, Index Funds, etc), whatever they do is going to dictate the direction of the stock, both short term and long term. This stock is like a nightmare to a fund manager right now because it has been going down off and on for several months. When stocks take a nose dive, it means that the institutional guys are fleeing in mass. I think the stock may be at or near it’s bottom now. Why do I think this? Well, first the stock pretty much flat lined all day today after hitting a low of just over $21 dollars. That means that some value oriented investors were there as a buoy in case the stocked dropped down again, in which case they would pick up more shares. But also, just knowing how Wall Streeters think, they bank on certainty. They will kill a stock that misses earnings, much more one that misstates earnings. They are notorious for way overselling stocks surrounded by controversy, and then coming back in slowly as the smoke begins to clear. Think Johnson Meade, Carnival, Pepsi, Netflix….I could go on and on. So here are the 3 scenarios that COULD play out:<br />Worst Case Scenario: We find out that this thing is even bigger than we thought. There are more cockroaches in the kitchen, and the result is negative earnings. Wall Street news hits Main Street and people in all cities and towns in the world boycott the company, and stop buying Pringles, Walnuts, Almonds, Chips and everything else from Diamond because they are disgusted with their Shenanigans. Their stock drops to zero and we lose all our money as shareholders<br />Best Case Scenario: The already ousted CEO and CFO take the fall for the company’s misgivings. The financials are restated and it turns it was nowhere near as bad as everyone thought…earnings aren’t affected very much, and an analyst at Piper Jaffray gets excited and upgrades the stock….causing all the high paid lemmings at the other Investment Banks and Institutions to follow suit and the stock goes back to $50 dollars in a matter of a few months.<br /><br />Most likely scenario: The worst part is over. They got the fall guys out of there already. Diamonds board pledges that their reputation is paramount to their success. The financials are restated and it’s bad but the company will survive and over the next few quarters things start to improve once this is behind them, and once bitten Wall Streeters learn to trust the good folks at Diamond again. They even start to play golf with the new CEO and CFO. People around the world continue to eat Pringles, Chips, and nuts of all varieties. They go about their lives completely oblivious to Diamond Foods former financial problems. <br />From the money in RISKY BUSINESS portfolio I am betting that the third scenario will play out. I won’t buy right at the open tomorrow. I will wait to see if the stock goes anymore before I purchase, but if it stays under $24 I am pulling the trigger tomorrow morning. I have the advantage of not having to report a profit to my shareholders next quarter, so if it takes a little longer for the company to recover so be it. That just means I won’t have to pay the short term capital gains rate. I am long DMNDBryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-67064550984048072222012-02-09T18:25:53.760-08:002012-02-09T18:25:53.760-08:00Since Albie and Troy's comments about the Macr...Since Albie and Troy's comments about the Macro environment, gold, and what China is up to lately don't interest me, and I am therefore completely ignorant on the subjects, I present to you something fun and speculative (not for the faint of heart)<br /><br />Taking a bite of Diamond Foods: An analysis in behavioral psychology<br /><br />One thing I learned from Warren Buffett is to take big bets when the odds are in your favor, much like someone who counts cards in Las Vegas. You won’t win every time, but when you do win you win big! I believe such an opportunity may have presented itself here in Debacle that Diamond Foods has gotten itself into. In a nutshell (no pun intended) it looks as if management tried to cook the books (again no pun intended) to a certain extent by not categorizing the money paid to Walnut Growers properly on their financial statements to tune of approximately $60 million. The CEO and CFO were both ousted from their posts yesterday because of it. The stock, having already been hammered this year due to financial misgivings, was given a veritable death blow today as it careened down another 40% today finally settling at $23.13 end of day. Keep in mind this was a $90 stock just a few months ago. This puts the P/E ratio at just over 10 times “earnings”. Now, there are many ways you can look at this. A bear might say that they just found two cockroaches in the kitchen and there are always more. In addition, since this debacle is related to their financials, who’s to say what their real financials are? Both valid points.Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-66797387112873355862012-02-01T09:22:25.378-08:002012-02-01T09:22:25.378-08:00Buy Radioshack! (RSH)
I don't normally make s...Buy Radioshack! (RSH)<br /><br />I don't normally make short term predictions or speculate on companies within the stock market. RSH got hammered yesterday and was unduly punished, losing over 30% of its value. This company is not going out of business any time soon. Although I wouldn't consider this a long term play or a wonderful company by my standards, if I had a hankering for a short term trade to make at least a 10-15% quick pop, I would put some money down on this one. Of course this is pure speculation and I could be way off, but I think this one has found a bottom. As I write this, RSH is trading at 7.25 a share. Keep your eye on it!Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-88366290644918207492012-01-25T10:23:57.633-08:002012-01-25T10:23:57.633-08:00Why it’s impossible to be a successful long term i...Why it’s impossible to be a successful long term investor without becoming personally developed along the way<br /><br />How you think about money directly affects your performance in stock market as well as in life. We’ve all heard the stories of people who won the lottery and within a short period of time have lost all the money. In fact, statistically this is the norm. We’ve also heard the opposite story about millionaires who lost their money and within a reasonable period of time made it all back, and then some. This is because each one of us has a “money blueprint”, if you will, that goes back to what we were taught about money when we were young. When we come of age, each one of us has the power to change this blueprint and to expand it at the same rate we expand our thinking. <br /><br />A perfect example: Isn’t it interesting that people who live paycheck to paycheck always have just enough money to make it till the next payday? This is not an accident. <br />In the same way, if you think you can make riches in stock market, and you have yet to change your blueprint from a middle class or poverty mindset to a rich one, you are severely deluding yourself. Since the decisions you make affect what your eventual return will be, this makes perfect sense. After all, isn’t it the decisions we have made in life that have gotten us to where we are today? And aren’t all of our decisions based on who are at the particular moment we make them? After all, if a person finds themself homeless one day it is because he or she has made a series of bad decisions internally which are reflected now in their lives externally. The adverse is also true. Therefore, if you expect to gain riches in the stock market, but you have not grown mentally to be able to house the types of ideas and thinking of someone ready to receive the money and keep it, ask yourself two questions:<br /><br />Who makes the buying decisions for the stocks you purchase?<br /><br />Answer: YOU DO<br /><br />Who makes the selling decisions for the stocks you sell?<br /><br />Answer: YOU DO<br /><br />Isn’t it apparent then, that since your success in stocks is wholly dependent on making the decisions a rich person would make, that you need to learn to think this way in order to have success? Now, here's the million dollar question: If you make the stock buying decisions a poor person would make, what do you think you will continue to be?Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-18549601515899449332012-01-24T19:47:43.814-08:002012-01-24T19:47:43.814-08:00Since I take a long term approach to investing,the...Since I take a long term approach to investing,the way I view these events are as something temporary and inconsequential. They are merely a snapshot as to state of things on a particular day. The way I invest is to consider whether individual businesses are worthy of being bought as an enterprise. If so, then I buy as many shares of that business as possible, provided I can get the shares at the right price taking into account it's probable future cash flow generation. Case in point: Today I bought shares of TNAV because the company boasts high returns on invested capital (a sign that management is adept at investing the company's excess capital at high returns)and is trading at an extremely reasonable valuation compared with it's future growth prospects. So the events and indicators Albie mentions, though they may useful tools for various types of Traders and Chart Enthusiasts, have about as much relevance to me as they would to your local convenience store owner. They are not going to have an affect on his business on a day to day basis, and are certainly not something he would pay the least bit of attention to...Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-61240567248845657122012-01-20T01:01:27.727-08:002012-01-20T01:01:27.727-08:00That's excellent editing Bryan! Putting it on ...That's excellent editing Bryan! Putting it on sight now.Albiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17293333120080631723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-91069794537519814922012-01-19T21:07:07.513-08:002012-01-19T21:07:07.513-08:00Google in a Pickle
Some interesting thoughts on G...Google in a Pickle<br /><br />Some interesting thoughts on Google(GOOG). They reported earnings today and, like a parent a child can never please despite straight A's on his report card, Google's shares got hammered in after hours trading. Here's the news: <br /><br />Google, based in Mountain View, Calif., reported that net income in the fourth quarter rose 6.4 percent, to $2.71 billion, or $8.22 a share, from $2.54 billion, or $7.81 a share, in the period a year earlier. Excluding the cost of stock options and the related tax benefits, Google’s fourth-quarter profit was $9.50 a share, up from $8.75 a year ago. Analysts had expected $10.49 a share. <br /><br />The company said revenue climbed 25 percent, to $10.58 billion, from $8.44 billion. <br /><br />Net revenue, which excludes commissions paid to advertising partners, was $8.13 billion, up from $6.37 billion. Analysts had expected net revenue of $8.4 billion. <br /><br />As you can see, Wall Street is not very forgiving if you fall the least bit short of their expectations, especially if you have met expectations consistently in the past. So, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sell off in GOOG on Friday resulting in an overreaction and shares falling a bit too much. This would present a buying opportunity. I believe shares of Google are worth at least $800 dollars conservatively factoring in a growth rate of 15%. The Street estimates their future growth at over 18%. So if Wall Street slaps Google hard enough tomorrow we could see the stock start to come into the upper end of a buying range. The problem with being a small individual investor is that you don't have constant float to invest at your every whim, and hence you must sell your second favorite position in order to buy your first favorite one. I believe my current holdings will still yield a higher return on investment than GOOG, even if it drops a bit. For this reason, though GOOG will probably drop a fair amount tomorrow, I would have to see it fall to the $400's for me to consider a purchase. At this point I would load up the truck, and hold for the long term. Google's not going away any time soon folks. It's hard to compete against a company that gives it's product away for free, so if you if you buy it even at these levels you are certain to make money in the future. Happy investing!Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-89691295016203671642012-01-19T20:36:13.540-08:002012-01-19T20:36:13.540-08:00One day, three good friends began sharing a common...One day, three good friends began sharing a common interest in stock market investing. Lo and behold one day their paths began to diverge. Bryan developed a love for the fundamentals and brought Albie along for the ride studying the likes of Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, and Phil Town. Though Albie found all these principles to be of value (no pun intended..inside Grahamian joke), he stepped out into the technical side of trading, world economics and the Forex market. Troy began investing in silver around the same time and though he was given a crash course in the fundamentals, developed his forte in commodities. Troy and Albie both shared a passion for understanding world economics but found themselves pitted against each other - Albie, bullish on US markets and Troy bearish. And yet the three found that, despite being attracted to three different parts of the same elephant, each person's knowledge complimented the others. This merry triumverate decided to form this blog to share their combined knowledge and use it to help others. With three different takes on the market, there's sure to be something here for everyone!Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-71809053022094376542012-01-19T17:22:15.009-08:002012-01-19T17:22:15.009-08:00If I were an avid trader, which I am not, I would ...If I were an avid trader, which I am not, I would take advantage of short term, bad news situations, some of which can be gleened from the news we see everyday. Case in point. With the recent Carnival cruise disaster, Carnival's stock CCL dropped precipitously overnight to open about 15% lower than it closed the previous. In the the last two days of trading it has regained some of its losses, though it still is about 10% away from fully recovering. Will this incident affect the company's earnings in the short term? Possibly. But long term the stock and company should fully recover and then some. Short term bad news situation such as these present compelling buying opportunities for those with a long term perspective. Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy!Bryand1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15045302135246042945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-452788943924490058.post-30359095049999285262012-01-19T01:19:45.215-08:002012-01-19T01:19:45.215-08:00Would love to hear your take on the stock market! ...Would love to hear your take on the stock market! Feel free to post a comment.Albiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17293333120080631723noreply@blogger.com