Man Alive! One AwesomeTrack Record! & Some Tips

 Albies Take: 

Heres is a comment Bryan posted in response to the last Post:

LULU, COH Stocks Near Bottom: Squeezing the Last Drop out of This Lemon, Coach is in the Bag.

 Man alive Bryan! You sure have one awesome track record!  I was really impressed and wanted to share your post with everyone. You also have some great advice and answers to my observations and questions. Thanks for sharing Bryan. Here is your comment:

January 24, 2013 at 4:09 PM

Bought more LULU today at 66.60 and sold at 67.44 for about a 1.25 % profit. Despite my being glad to be out of LULU because of the valuation in relation to the market being at or near a top, I couldn't resist buying more as it dipped back down. I was hoping it would pop at the end of the day which it did!

My track record in the last few months is now:

40 successful trades and 1 loss

In response to Albie's comment:

In terms of being a value investor, I don't consider myself one. I generally don't buy companies that would susceptible to value traps. I buy companies that are rapid growers, which happen to trade at reasonable valuations and have just been knocked down because of bad news of some kind. True Value Investors diversify widely and buy stocks trading for under book value (you could buy the whole company for less than it's liquidation value). These are generally broken companies that may have one last puff left in them. I only invest in companies that are growers that are going to come back quickly from a knock down. That's the way to avoid value traps. Of course, you have to evaluate the company and make sure the bad news doesn't permanently affect the fundamentals of the company. As Buffett says: "It's better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price". Take care. Stay posted for my next trade!

~Bryan




Thanks Bryan for sharing some of your tips with us, your awesome track record and some history of which stocks you've been in recently.

~Albie


PS: For anyone just joining us here and who is new to stocks or new to this kind of investing, I highly recommend checking out this video by Warren Buffet. Its Very, Very Good!

You H-A-V-E To See THIS!!!(Part 1)

Click On Pic For More Info

LULU, COH Stocks Near Bottom: Squeezing the Last Drop out of This Lemon, Coach is in the Bag.

 Albie's Take: 

You know Bryan, as a value investor, there is a huge chance of finding yourself caught in a value trap when buying Stocks near the bottom. But it seems you have really tapped into a way to buy very close near the bottom and catch and profit on the stock on its way up - even if it is as you say aiming to 'hit a single rather than a home run'. Thanks for taking the time to share a little about your success trading with Lulu and COH lately. I've been watching your 'single hits' and you've been getting them in regularly:

Bryan's Take:

Hi guys! Ok...so it's been a doozy of ride since yesterday.
 

LULU: Just sold it at a 1% gain even though it will probably go up more in the coming days. LULU's valuation of over a 40 P/E is a bit scary and not something I wanted be in long, especially since we are flirting with record highs in all the major indices. If the markets were to go down dramatically all of a sudden the high growth stocks like LULU always crash the most.....(if I would have known this five years ago I would be a Millionaire already). Even though the charts say it's going up more I'm more about hitting singles at this point than hitting home runs. 

COH: Let me just breathe a sigh of relief on this one. Phew!!! I figured that 51.36 had to be at or near a bottom yesterday after it had fallen almost 16%. It flat lined all day long until Cramer opened his big mouth about an hour before the close and sent the stock down more with his negative outloook. As I told Jeff, Cramer admits to being right about 60% of the time. Since I started tracking I have been right over 98% of the time. Therefore, I respectfully disagree with Cramer. The trading as of today in COH strongly suggest that COH is at or near a bottom. Volume is much lower than yesterday so that tells me the majority of people selling are done. I believe I will get my 2% + out of this stock in the coming days unless the market turns down.

 Here are some reasons I am bullish on COH:

1. At or near a bottom now

2. 72% gross profit margins were not affected, despite missing Wall Street's expectations

3. 40% growth in China

4. Dividend is now at 2% which should provide some stability

5. All their bags over $400 are selling exceptionally well

6. No debt....may I repeat that? No debt

7. They didn't do any discounting which means they haven't lost their cachet

8. Trading at 14 times earnings....a very reasonable valuation for a wonderful company

Doesn't like the "tired and old" company Cramer describes does it? I hope that it helps you guys for me to share my thoughts. You have to develop your own theses. As Warren Buffett says: "You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You're right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that's the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don't have to worry about anybody else."

Have a great day everyone! 

Bryan 


 Albie's Take: 

Thanks for Sharing with us Bryan. I've been inspired by your 'batting average' for the last couple years and think that it may be a great help to others to share your successes nailing these GREAT stocks as they fall to near bottom prices. 

~Albie

What Side Is Wall Street On and What if...?

Its been a strange day watching Wall Street today and the outcomes and words spoken by various parties. For instance, this morning I woke up to a MSN article proclaiming that hedge fund managers were big supporters of Mitt Romney and that Wall Street was not a big supporter of the financial approach Obama's has taken this year. The Market was up over a 100 points by 9:00 am.

Mid afternoon, I checked out another article which stated:  "Daily Game Plan: Schaeffer's Senior Trading Analyst Bryan Sapp suggests the markets could be pricing in an Obama victory" Schaeffer;s Market Recap

So what was it? I couldn't seem to figure out which side the stock market was on. Or if like everything else, it was two sided. By late evening time, I again looked at what MSN had to say about Obama's victory and this is what I saw: 

"Projected Obama win has markets staring at fiscal cliff
Rodrigo Campos and Steven C. Johnson
12:45 AM EST November 7, 2012
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Traders and investors on Wednesday said the best way for U.S. President Barack Obama to celebrate his re-election would be to avoid a budget crisis that could send the U.S. economy reeling.

Stock futures fell about half a percent after Obama edged out Republican Mitt Romney while bond futures rose. While the result ended uncertainty about regulation and monetary policy, some remained on edge about taxes and overall economic health." MSN

So here we were again, full circle to a 'victory celebration' with a poor view on what the president will do for the financial health of the country. I'm curious as to what the news report would have said had Mitt Romney been elected!

It was a confusing day and my colleague Bryan couldn't figure it out either. Perhaps the three digit jump was the only concrete answer we would get. In the end, after all the talk, I guess I was just happy to see my stock in DECK go up! LOL!

32 To 61 Percent!

Yesterday From MSN:

In a hard-hitting session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) spiraled more than 262 points at its intraday low, and retreated to its lowest settlement in more than a month. "Earnings season continues to be the main focus for the market and, unfortunately, it hasn't been that great," remarked Schaeffer's Senior Equity Analyst Joe Bell. "Throw in some bad news from Moody's concerning Spain and their economic problems, and you had one of the worst daily losses in months. Stocks in the basic-materials sector are definitely getting hit the hardest."
MSN

Today From MSN:

 "Boeing's more optimistic outlook bucked the recent string of disappointments from global giants including DuPont , United Technologies Corp and 3M Co , all of which lowered their full-year forecasts.

Investors have focused on weak revenue growth so far this earnings season, said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St Louis.

"Certainly today we've seen some companies with better earnings, but overall, the trend remains one where investors are cautious," said Warne.

Tech stocks weighed to the downside amid signs businesses were putting off spending because of the uncertain economic outlook. Decliners included network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc , which was down 2.5 percent at $17.55. Movie rental company Netflix slumped 12.2 percent to $59.93 after it cut its subscriber forecast.

Just 38.2 percent of companies have reported revenue that beat analysts' expectations, while 61.8 percent have fallen short, according to Thomson Reuters data. In a typical quarter, 62 percent of companies beat estimates." MSN

Fear and Greed!

Here's a stock quote for you that my friend Troy gave me:
"People make financial mistakes because of two reasons: FEAR and GREED."

So when buying and selling stocks, WHAT is motivating you?!

News update. Yesterday the stock market retreated from its 2007 highs. My friend Bryan believes with Phil Town that a big stock crash could be in the making. Its definitely possible. I asked Bryan what the bad news would be that would create the crash and he replied that we're being surrounded by bad news. Here in the US, our economy is not getting any better. Europe is holding on by a thread. And now even China is having to cut back and their projected growth is being stunted. I'm guessing that perhaps the FED is pumping 30 billion dollars into the economy every month now on an almost vain hope of reigniting the economy. So with all the fear out there, what do you suppose will happen?

Bryans Take: 15% Gain in Two Weeks!

In the stock world, my friend Bryan "just sold a truck load of (stock) ZAGG purchased on 8/29/12 for 7.60 a share for 8.75...a 15% gain in two weeks." Great Work Bryan. I'm watching BIDU right now which is another stock we're both interested in.

Concerning BIDU, Bryan just set a limit order for 109.44 to sell BIDU shares that he bought yesterday at 106.78. He sold earlier today just in case the FED decision brought the market down. He went on to say that's 14 trades in a row with no losses - no, sorry, that's 16.

Albies Take: That's unbelievable Bryan! Great work. :-) Just found out the Fed actually are taking steps to buy back 40 Billion a month of debt to try and revive the economy. Talk about a monthly expense we may all have to pay for later!

The Worlds Woes...

Albies Take:

"What central banks everywhere are doing is trying to make sure people are not focused on the world breaking apart," said Dinakar Singh, CEO..."From MSN

(Albie: "they should be more worried about doing the right thing! Lol!!!)"

Troy's Take:

Absolutely!!! I total agree. Central banks are committing financial treason.,"

Albies Take:

"I understand they don't want a 'run on the bank' so to speak but there's got to be a better way..."

Troys Take:

"There is...let the people/countries who are bankrupt go bankrupt. It's painful in the short term but long term it is best! Stop having the countries who saved & sacrificed pay for the people who were reckless! Lol! Your thoughts?"

Albie's Take:

Yes, painful but probably the right thing to do...it doesn't hurt for countries to help if they can - but not at the expense of their own financial stability and especially should not be 'gambling' w/ money they don't have..."

Troys Take:

"I agree. Prepare for bad times and you will only know good times."(Robert Kiyosaki) and: Proverbs 27:12
"A prudent man sees evil and hides himself, the naive proceed and pay the penalty."

Great quote & verse Troy!